Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.132562 2.261771 2.398018 2.552954 2.724952 2.910843 3.128035
2025-08-24 1.923734 2.098673 2.292077 2.523695 2.796186 3.110005 3.503925
2025-08-31 1.805058 2.007327 2.238373 2.525496 2.878135 3.304685 3.872161
2025-09-07 1.723126 1.945582 2.206441 2.540639 2.966331 3.503866 4.257969
2025-09-14 1.631481 1.863054 2.140006 2.503193 2.979219 3.601504 4.514052
2025-09-21 1.552456 1.789510 2.077720 2.463226 2.981149 3.679291 4.745339
2025-09-28 1.480514 1.719939 2.015065 2.416508 2.967455 3.730430 4.938888
2025-10-05 1.452581 1.703361 2.017672 2.454098 3.069173 3.950741 5.415709
2025-10-12 1.428398 1.689647 2.022222 2.493123 3.174059 4.183841 5.946590
2025-10-19 1.403087 1.672758 2.020933 2.522850 3.266264 4.405193 6.492706
2025-10-26 1.364540 1.636516 1.991473 2.510314 3.293404 4.524816 6.874585
2025-11-02 1.328670 1.602196 1.962730 2.496549 3.316626 4.638764 7.263571
2025-11-09 1.289521 1.562609 1.925797 2.469876 3.319441 4.721467 7.612928
2025-11-16 1.252489 1.524571 1.889414 2.441958 3.318053 4.796461 7.961474
2025-11-23 1.227615 1.502086 1.873675 2.443662 3.363972 4.959314 8.536727
2025-11-30 1.208360 1.486493 1.866799 2.458009 3.431153 5.167855 9.269635
2025-12-07 1.175128 1.450365 1.829013 2.422524 3.411282 5.208723 9.600463
2025-12-14 1.143034 1.414874 1.790882 2.384631 3.384584 5.233289 9.895796
2025-12-21 1.110727 1.378202 1.749839 2.340311 3.343837 5.225848 10.104297
2025-12-28 1.103056 1.375989 1.759005 2.375973 3.446268 5.520267 11.256454
2026-01-04 1.096088 1.374431 1.768880 2.412979 3.553638 5.839666 12.619857
2026-01-11 1.087010 1.369485 1.773363 2.441154 3.646685 6.141339 14.074689
2026-01-18 1.067906 1.349480 1.754372 2.429274 3.663030 6.271098 14.976140